RT Dissertation/Thesis
T1 Developing a biodiversity evaluation tool and scenario design methods for the Greater Mekong Subregion
A1 Cotter,Marc
WP 2012/02/27
AB The Xishuangbanna Prefecture in Yunnan Province (PR China) is facing increasing conflicts between rural development and nature conservation because of an ongoing expansion and commercialization of farming. The rapid development of large-scale farming and the improvement of infrastructure throughout the region are posing serious threats to the conservation of endemic species of flora and fauna, while also offering possibilities for enhancing the livelihood of rural populations to an extend never seen before. The expansion of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis Willd Ex A. Juss) has caused a reduction and fragmentation of natural and secondary forest cover, thereby decreasing structural and species diversity as well as the loss of valuable ecosystem services. The establishment of intensified agriculture, especially plantations on sloping terrain, often leads to an increased erosion risk, nutrient run-off and sedimentation in water courses. Thus, large scale deforestation is not just a problem for nature conservation but also one for the rural economies. Rural development and simultaneous environment conservation often face trade-offs, especially in regions that host an exceptionally high biodiversity, such as many tropical areas. In order to adequately consider and evaluate these interactions, tools and methods have to be developed that allow decision makers to assess the impacts of different management and infrastructure options on the environment.
The aim of the work presented in this thesis was to analyze and evaluate the effect of large-scale rubber cultivation on local and regional biodiversity by developing methods to integrate field studies from various disciplines into a comprehensive assessment model. This model was then used to highlight key aspects of anthropogenic influence on the plant species composition within the research area and to identify possible impacts of alternative land use decisions. Furthermore, the development of an interdisciplinary approach to scientific scenario design methods has been supplemented with a study on the acceptance of 3D-visualization as communication tool for land use planning in the background of nature conservation sciences.
In order to achieve this, an overview of the agronomical and ecological aspects of rubber cultivation was provided. Literature sources referring to the impact of different cultivation systems on natural biodiversity were discussed and an introduction to the effect of rubber cultivation on Ecosystem Services was given. A method for projection of regionally adapted carbon capture properties of rubber cultivation under suboptimal growth conditions was presented and a comparative assessment of greenhouse gas emissions during the establishment of rubber plantations in regard to the preexisting vegetation was made.	
A biodiversity evaluation tool based on the combination of approaches from landscape ecology and empirical data within a Geographic Information System was developed. Detailed data on plant species diversity and distribution were combined with quality criteria like endemism or invasiveness to form spatially explicit biodiversity indices for different land use types in various elevation classes. Up-scaling in accordance to the land use distribution observed allowed the estimation of overall plant diversity and the evaluation of the effect of possible future land use scenarios. Habitat characteristics and spatial distribution were included into the analysis of the land use map derived from remote sensing information to allow for the assessment of fragmentation and landscape matrix structure.
The methodology was tested with an array of possible present and future land use maps. It was possible not only to evaluate the different land use classes within and their distribution throughout the research area, but we were also able to compare distinct sub-regions based on topography or administrative status. The challenges stakeholders and nature conservation face in the different elevation zones of Nabanhe were highlighted and related to the findings of our partner workgroups from economy and social sciences.  The feasibility of this approach to administration staff with limited experience in ecological modeling was one of the main goals in designing the methods. Given a reasonable data set on species diversity and distribution within any given tropical research area, this approach will enable planners and nature park administration to quickly project possible consequences on species diversity indices deriving from land use change within their respective research area. Using this approach, the importance of natural tropical forests for the maintenance of species diversity in tropical cultivated landscapes was highlighted.	
With the information gained from constructing this evaluation tool, the design and development process for a land use scenario based on the integration of multidisciplinary assessments and iterative scenario refinement with repeated stakeholder inclusion was promoted. By combining stricter conservation rules with alternative sources of income for the rural population in order to offer an alternative to monoculture rubber farming, the economic models and the land use allocation model predicted a stop in rubber and agriculture related deforestation, and the establishment of a considerable amount of reforested area. This was achieved by introducing an innovative land use type that is closely related to traditional local home garden agroforestry systems. By coupling reforestation efforts with the economic gain derived from intercropping Traditional Chinese Medicinal plants into degraded secondary forests, this scenario was, at least theoretically, able to remove deforestation pressure from the natural forest types and to offer an economic alternative to rubber cultivation. 	
The methods used for this assignment can serve as guideline for future projects that want to implement scenario design procedures based on the combination of social sciences, economics, ecology and landscape planning.
The acceptance and comprehensibility of computer based 3D visualization models for the communication of possible future land use scenarios was also tested. Two alternative scenarios were visualized and compared to the status quo, with questionnaires and guided interviews covering the acceptability and adaptability of such techniques for professionals from various fields of nature conservation. 
This thesis presents an overview over agronomic, economic and ecological aspects of rubber cultivation and highlights its implications on biodiversity and nature conservation. The methods discussed here can serve as a guideline for the integration of ecological indicators in land use planning and decision making processes. Although the concepts and topics introduced herein are closely interlinked within the framework of the Living Landscapes China (LILAC) research project, the methods and approaches can easily be applied to other areas in the Greater Mekong Subregion and beyond, be it the expansion of oil palm plantations in the Malayan Archipelago or the fragmentation of forests due to increased population pressure in Central Africa. Nature conservation is facing similar problems all over the developing world, and adaptable approaches such as the ones presented here are needed to support decision making processes in order to secure the preservation and long-term survival of the worlds? diversity in species and natural habitats.

K1 Artenreichtum
K1 Biodiversität
K1 Modellierung
K1 Mekong
K1 Kautschukplantage
K1 Kautschuk
K1 Kautschukanbau
K1 Szenario
PP Hohenheim
PB Kommunikations-, Informations- und Medienzentrum der Universität Hohenheim
UL http://opus.uni-hohenheim.de/volltexte/2012/679