TY - GEN T1 - The camp view of inflation forecasts A1 - Geiger,Felix A1 - Sauter,Oliver A1 - Schmid,Kai D. Y1 - 2010/01/20 N2 - Analyzing sample moments of survey forecasts, we derive disagreement and un- certainty measures for the short- and medium term inflation outlook. The latter provide insights into the development of inflation forecast uncertainty in the context of a changing macroeconomic environment since the beginning of 2008. Motivated by the debate on the role of monetary aggregates and cyclical variables describing a Phillips-curve logic, we develop a macroeconomic indicator spread which is assumed to drive forecasters? judgments. Empirical evidence suggests procyclical dynamics between disagreement among forecasters, individual forecast uncertainty and the macro-spread. We call this approach the camp view of inflation forecasts and show that camps form up whenever the spread widens. KW - Inflation KW - Prognose CY - Hohenheim PB - Kommunikations-, Informations- und Medienzentrum der Universität Hohenheim AD - Garbenstr. 15, 70593 Stuttgart UR - http://opus.uni-hohenheim.de/volltexte/2010/415 ER -