TY  - THES
T1  - Land use management under climate change : a microeconomic analysis with emphasis on risk
A1  - Reinmuth,Evelyn
Y1  - 2018/04/30
N2  - This cumulative dissertation was conducted under a grant from the German Research Foundation (DFG) for the research group FOR 1695 - “Agricultural Landscapes under Global Climate Change – Processes and Feedbacks on a Regional Scale”. The goal of the sub-project from which this dissertation stems from was to explore, extend and strengthen the scientific basis for learning and risk strategies and the adaptation behavior of farmers’ economic planning decisions in crop production under the influence of climate change. The integrated bioeconomic simulation model FarmActor, was to be used as an experimental tool to develop an interdisciplinary methodological approach supported by empirical work in two study regions in Southwest Germany, the Kraichgau and the Swabian Alb. This dissertation examines risk in the context of land use management and specifically crop production. Risk in this context is related to how outcome distributions are affected by climatic influences. Risk strategies assess these contributions and account for them in the resulting decisions.
The thesis is written as a cumulative dissertation and is composed of five articles. Four articles have been published by peer-reviewed journals. A fifth article has been published as a peer-reviewed conference proceeding. The article at fifth place represents the results of the main focus of this dissertation as presented in the following.
Available economic models assume that farmers assess climatic risks only through yields or costs when building their land use management risk strategy for crop production. However, the available methodological approaches have been criticized for either under- or overestimating farmers’ actual behavior. In reality, and as a basis for field allocation planning, farmers have additional knowledge from monitoring crop development throughout the whole season. Yield is actually just the last point in a long sequence of (economic) evaluative observations about the production process. This influences how farmers define not only the riskiness of a yield distribution but also its costs. We hypothesize that, because it is not possible to methodologically integrate process evaluations in economic planning decisions, models lack performance, and as a consequence, it is very difficult to conduct proper research on the climate’s influences on land use management decisions.
In this original research, we present a newly developed downside risk measure based on evaluations throughout the production process that can be included in the planning process as an additional parameter—so-called Annual Risk Scores. A comparative static analysis was performed to demonstrate how ARS scores assess future climatic conditions in the example of winter wheat production in the Kraichgau region as supported by empirical data. It was shown that the mechanism is sensitive to different climatic conditions. Furthermore, the ARS scores provide a different picture of climatic influence compared to an analysis based only on yields. 
The last article presented in this dissertation represents an integrative review that promotes more efficient model development and the reuse of newly developed methodologies in the field of integrated bio-economic simulation models. The review is based on lessons learned from working with the simulation model. Thus, the intended and outstanding full implementation of the ARS mechanism is presented in the last part of the synthesis, where we advise including the ARS scores as another constraint in the field allocation mechanisms of the FarmActor model. This is expected to improve the integration of both bio-physical and economic dimensions for complex integrated bio-economic simulation models.

KW  - Landwirtschaft
KW  - Risiko
KW  - Modellierung
KW  - Simulation
KW  - Modell
CY  - Hohenheim
PB  - Kommunikations-, Informations- und Medienzentrum der Universität Hohenheim
AD  - Garbenstr. 15, 70593 Stuttgart
UR  - http://opus.uni-hohenheim.de/volltexte/2018/1473
ER  -